Yesterday morning, I woke up to fantastic news. It looked like the Gaddafi regime was finally falling, and Libya could expect to be free — whatever that looks like — very, very soon.

A few hours later, I had news that suckerpunched me. Jack Layton — a man I had never met — was dead.

Layton was something rarely seen in politics. The longer he was in the spotlight, the more times he ran for office, the more press conferences he held, the more I admired him. There are some politicians that you admire when you first hear their pitch, but over years the mere playing of politics cannot help but taking even the most admiration-worth of them down a peg or two.

Somehow this did not apply to Layton.

When he came on the national political scene in Canada, as leader of the NDP, I immediately thought he was a vast improvement over his predecessor. But I also wondered how somebody who gave off a bit of a used car salesman vibe would ever find success. I was not the only one to increasingly respect him over the following eight years — his party went from 13 seats when he was elected its leader, to 103 at his death. There are, as always, a myriad of reasons for this, but Jack Layton himself was no small factor.

Three days ago — two days before his death — Jack Layton wrote a letter to Canadians. With the knowledge that death was imminent, he reached out to let people know his vision for the future of his political party and the country he lived in. It can be read in full elsewhere, but I’d like to share the final paragraph here:

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.

All my very best,

Jack Layton

At a time when we see political leaders in the Arab world clinging to power through the brutalization of their own people, shortly after American politicians showed that they believe in scoring points via political brinksmanship over the well-being of the nation, and as British politicians all point their fingers at their pet causes in the wake of riots, it is easy to become cynical, to believe that politicians are only in it for themselves.

So remember Jack. Remember that there are people out there who believe we can be better, are clear about what “better” looks like, and will fight to the death for it.

Whatever your political stripe, here’s hoping that the people you vote for are a bit more like Jack Layton, and a bit less like those politicians who fill our daily newspapers with the material that turns us into cynics.

We could use more like him.

Rest in peace, Jack.

On Monday this week, Canada went to the polls and elected a majority Conservative government.

Here at the Big Bad Blog, we are still in shock — not only are we not terribly conservative in our own politics, but we harbour a deep dislike for the Conservative Party of Canada, as presently constituted, and Canada’s current Prime Minister, Stephen Harper.

So we are not sure what words are about to spill from our keyboard, but our “to do” list for Thursday includes the words “Blog: Canadian election”, so we are about to find out.

What happened

Harper’s Conservative party has been governing for years, of course, but with a minority in parliament. The polls going into the election made it look like the same thing was going to happen again — a couple of seats might shift here or there, but the government would likely have the same make-up.

Then everything changed.

The Liberals collapsed

First, they chose a leader without political savvy or charisma.

They then allowed the Conservatives to label him as an outsider who was only back for a run at being Prime Minister before he could establish any kind of identity with Canadian voters.

And those were, it seems, the strong points of the campaign.

The NDP went into overdrive

A round of applause for Mr. Jack Layton, leader of the opposition. I do not believe that the world has seen such magnificent campaigning in my lifetime.

The suburbs got comfortable with Harper

Southern Ontario is covered in suburbs. These are typical North American suburbs — they are filled with affluent people, many of whom are aging. They are idyllic little communities, if you like that sort of thing, removed from the issues that come with large cities, but closely connected to them by highways and commuter rail.

Affluence and age are two qualities that tend to make one’s politics more conservative in nature.

With the Liberals running themselves into the ground, the election suddenly became — for many voters — a choice between the NDP and the Conservatives. Not prepared to go Orange, the suburbs turned to Blue.

Five years of Harper have made them less afraid of the non-fiscal side of his politics. Fiscal conservatives who are more socially conservative than the NDP (though not as radical as Harper’s Conservative base), they felt closer to Harper’s position than Layton’s.

What this means …

… for the Conservatives

The Conservatives have their first majority, for the first time.

An important thing to remember. These are not the Progressive Conservatives, nor the previous incarnation of the Conservative party (which was the re-labeled Liberal-Conservative party of John A. MacDonald); they are most closely related to the Reform Party that rose in the early 90s, but could never gain must traction east of the prairies.

Those Reform party members are still the current leaders of the Conservative party today — Mr. Harper, for example, spoke at the party’s founding convention and was their first Chief Policy Officer.

The question they now have to answer is whether they are the Reform Party — further right wing than most of Canada, and intensely regionalized — or if they are a truly national Conservative party.

… for the NDP

The NDP have been also-rans at the federal level since their founding. No longer.

For the first time, they find themselves with a large role to play in parliament and a chance to prove themselves to those doubtful voters – mostly in Ontario (see above) – who could prove to be a key to a majority next time around.

… for the Bloc

The BQ took a major blow. Whether or not they can recover depends on two things:

First, will Quebeckers feel represented in this parliament? Support for the BQ has long been considerably higher than support for separation from Canada, as many in Quebec felt as though the national parties all ignored their issues. This time around, they chose to abandon their bloc — which (like all opposition parties) was largely ignored by the governing Conservatives.

With a Conservative majority, the NDP have even less power than the Bloc previously held, though as the clear, single, opposition party, they get a louder voice than the Bloc previously held. The Bloc’s ability to return will rest largely on how well they feel the NDP carries the torch for Quebec.

Second, will other parties learn from the NDP? It did not take much to get the province to switch to NDP, nearly across the board – a left-leaning party, with a leader born in the province, and a little bit of pro-Quebec rhetoric. Obviously Mr. Harper is in at the head of the Conservative party until he wants out, but the future of Canadian politics could resemble its past. Monday was the first time since 1958 that a party leader outside of Quebec managed to lead his party to a majority government.

Fifty-three years.

Nearly a decade of minority governments, followed by an NDP surge should show politicians that Quebec still matters in Canadian politics — the degree to which other parties follow the NDP lead in courting Quebec (and how well they do it) will play a greater role in determining the Bloc’s future than anything the BQ does itself.

… for the Liberals

The Liberals are certainly down — but are they out? We think no.

There are three reasons for this:

1. They are not that far down. Thirty-four seats might be the worst result in Liberal history, but it is not an unusually small number for the third-strongest party in parliament. The NDP, for instance, has only had thirty-four (or more) seats three times (including currently). At the last election, they had only thirty-seven.
2. They have history on their side. Laurier. King. Trudeau. Even Chretien. The Liberal party has a history which resonates with Canadian voters, where the NDP — their competition on the left — do not. Just as the Reform party could not find success until re-branded with the “Conservative” label, the NDP might have trouble breaking through under their current name. The Liberal brand is still strong, even if the party is weak.
3. They still have the centre. The Liberal party still governs Ontario — Canada’s largest province, by population — and might well win again when Ontarians return to the polls this year. They also still govern Quebec — though the parties are officially separate entities. Their poor showing had a lot to do with their campaign and leadership, rather than a lack of grassroots support.

With the right leadership in front of them (and a little humility behind them), there is no reason to think the Liberals will not be back.

… for Canada

The pessimist within looks at Harper’s Conservatives and sees the old Reform Party of Canada, mixed in with the least desirable elements of America’s Republican party. We worry that Canada will change into a place that we do not recognize — and not in a good way.

The optimist within reminds us of two things however:

• Mr. Harper is a very intelligent man
• Mr. Harper is a megalomaniac

It strikes us that Mr. Harper’s legacy is quite important to him. He will recognize Quebec’s importance, and that his politics have yet to gain any traction there. He will understand that the Conservative seats in Ontario are by no means safe seats, and that both the Liberals and NDP will threaten them the next time an election comes around.

He will note that he has been elected Prime Minister three times. The following people have been elected four times or more:

• Sir John A. MacDonald
• Sir Wilfred Laurier
• William Lyon MacKenzie King
• Pierre Trudeau

That is quite a list. He will want to join it.

He also recognizes that this is his Conservative Party’s first majority — the party’s legacy will be determined very much by how well its actions resonate with voters. If he can win a second majority in 2015, hand the reins over to a successor, and see the Conservative Party truly become “Canada’s natural governing party”, that will also be part of his legacy — from Reform Party policy officer, through to first CPC Prime Minister, and beyond.

Mr. Harper almost certainly wants these things written in history books. He is most certainly a smart man. He must realize that a more-centre-than-right Ontario must be consolidated and a left-leaning Quebec won over, if he is to achieve these things.

Our inner optimist hopes he does his best.